Today we speak about energy transitions. We hear this term more and more frequently. In Germany, they speak all the time about the energiewende , which is exactly the translation of energy transition. What does this mean? We know that we need to change our energy system, and evolve towards a system that is less dependent on fossil fuels, and more dependent on energy sources that are not generating emissions. So we need to have a transition from the fossil fuels to other fuels. So let's look at the past. Let's look at what has happened in history and other examples of energy transition we may find. The first slide that I prepared for you and is taken from a book by Vaclav Smil shows you that until the beginning of the 20th century, the most important primary energy source was biomass. The most important source of energy was burning wood or other organic material. It is only in 1900 that coal becomes globally the most important energy source, and it has remained the most important energy source until 1960. In 1960, oil takes the place of coal as the most important energy source, coal does not disappear not at all. But oil becomes more important, and it grows more rapidly than the rest for the following 10 years until 1970, then it starts growing less rapidly than the rest. So the share of oil is reduced progressively from 1970 on, but it remains the most important. We see the emergence of natural gas as an important source of energy and rapidly growing decade after decade. Finally, we have growing importance for other sources such as hydro, nuclear, or other renewable and they grow rapidly, but from such a low base that they remain relatively less significant in the total. Is this a picture of energy transitions? I'm not sure. It is a picture in which new sources are added to old sources, but all sources do not disappear. To this date, we still use biomass, we still use coal. As a matter of fact, the consumption of coal has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and coal has comeback as more important than it used to be. So it is not a transition whereby old sources are eliminated and new sources come in. It is a transition whereby new sources are continuously added and the panorama becomes more complex. Why is oil the most important source of energy? It is for very good reasons. It is because oil is a material that has the greatest energy density. That means per unit of volume or per unit of weight, whether we measure it in liters and barrels or we measure it in kilos and tons, oil is able to pack the greatest amount of energy and give us the greatest amount of energy. This is important because if you drive your car, you want to have a lot of space available for passengers, for luggage, if It is a truck you want to be able to take a lot of cargo. You don't want to have a tank on four wheels. You don't want to have the need to devote a lot of space or a lot of the power to taking around your fuel only. Primary energy demand grows in connection with GDP growth. Here we see how GDP has grown in the OECD countries, and primary energy demand has followed GDP for a while and then slowly it has stabilized. In the past few years, we have had some growth in GDP which has not been accompanied by any growth in energy demand in the OECD in the industrial countries. But outside of the OECD, when we come to the emerging countries the picture is completely different. There GDP is growing and energy demand is also growing almost in line with GDP. For the future, we expect that non-OECD will be the key to growth in energy demand. This as the new policies scenario of the International Energy Agency, we expect that energy demand in the industrial countries may stabilize, but not so outside of the industrial countries. Outside of the industriali countries energy demand will continue to increase and rapidly so. With respect to energy intensity which means how much energy is required to generate to produce one unit of GDP Gross Domestic Product, the situation is that this has been steadily decreasing both in the industrial countries and in the non-industrial countries. So we expect this decreased to continue, but we expect that energy intensity will decline much more rapidly in the non-industrial countries in the emerging countries. That is a necessary assumption because if we do not assume this, if this were not the case then the energy demand in the emerging countries would increase even more rapidly than is represented in this slide. This would practically mean that it would be impossible to meet our objective of reducing global warming. Which energy sources will satisfy this growing demand? We see here that the International Energy Agency expects oil demand to continue to grow, and oil to remain the most important energy source over the next 20 years. Coal will remain second in this scenario. Not catching up on coal with respect to oil, but still maintain the second position. In contrast, gas grows more rapidly than either oil or coal, but it remains in third position. It does not become as important or more important than the first two. Notice the increase in other renewables. This is a very rapid increase. There are very optimistic assumptions about the increase in other renewables. Nevertheless, other renewables remain rather at the bottom of this chart. They become more important than hydro, but there are second to last. Notice also that we are assuming and we are representing here an increase in nuclear energy. This is again a necessary assumption if we want to meet our objectives in terms of containing global warming in CO2 emissions. Next, we look at the geographic composition of energy demand. Here you can see that in the industrial countries, whether in North America, in Europe, or in Asia, and Oceania we expect that energy demand has essentially stabilized. We do not expect a significant increase over the next 20 years. In contrast, where the increase is massive and very significant is in Asia. That is where very populous and rapidly growing countries are located countries like China, and India, and that is where most of the increase in energy demand will come from Africa, Latin America contribute relatively little. That is not because they wouldn't need much larger energy supply, but because we are not assuming that they will be able to grow as rapidly as Asia is growing. So in a sense, this remains something that underlies some continuation of energy poverty, and non satisfied demand for energy even 20 years from now.